Michael Brandsegg-Nygard’s 2026 glow-up

When you think about the most famous glow-ups of all time, maybe you’re in the Disney Channel frame of mind. Ryan Gosling, Zendaya, Ariana Grande or Zac Efron. You might be into the superhero glow-ups like Chris Pratt, Michael B. Jordan or Tobey Maguire. Or perhaps you’re a Harry Potter fan who can’t get over how the actor who played Neville Longbottom went from the punching bag of Gryffindor to some ripped dude.

And maybe I already lost you with all this glow-up talk.

But let me posit to you that the biggest glow-up of 2026 is Michael Brandsegg-Nygard. More specifically: his on-ice play.

It’s easy to get caught up in the counting stats from his first 10 games last year vs. this year. ZERO goals and one assist last season all the way to two goals and six assists this season. The more data-savvy of you may even quip that for those 10 games he led the Red Wings in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). But there’s more going on.

MBN in 2025-26 vs. 2026-27

Three things are going on. Or, to keep the bit alive, three ways Michael Brandsegg-Nygard’s glow-up turned him into a triple threat.

The shot map

Think of the shot map like a body transformation. The dude goes from scrawny to ripped. I’m going to stick with Tobey Maguire from earlier. It’s like Peter Parker after getting bit by a spider.

The shot map has changed significantly. He’s shooting it at the same rate as last year, slightly down if anything, from 18.3 shot attempts per 60 to 17.8. But it’s the quality of those shots. He’s shooting the puck from about 7 ft closer per attempt, which has a few different effects.

First, shooting closer to the net translates into more pucks getting through and being on-target. The 18.3 shot attempts per 60 last season produced 7.7 shots on goal per 60. This year, 17.8 attempts turn into 9.7 on goal. Last year 13 of his 38 attempts were blocked; this year it’s 5 of 46. He had 25 unblocked attempts last year and 40 this year.

The second benefit is that 7 ft closer puts you into higher danger areas. It’s no secret that the more time a goalie has to react, the more likely he is to stop you from scoring. MBN’s shot attempts this year have produced 3.97 xG compared to 1.47 last year. His two goals this season may be underselling his scoring potential.

Finally, the variety of shot types he can take also goes up as he gets closer to the net. Over 60% of his attempts come from inside 25 feet, up from 40% last year. That has allowed him to go from 3 tipped shots to 8 and from 1 backhand to 4. His rebound attempts went from 8% of his total shots to 15%.

This kind of output means he’s going to get ugly goals. His first goal of the season is a perfect example of this. It wasn’t pretty, but he was near the crease and pounced on a puck the goalie wasn’t able to cover. His second goal is more the prototype of what people expect to see: a lethal one-timer on an odd-man rush.

Most people have noticed that he’s getting to better areas of the ice than he did as a rookie. The data backs that up. It’s also representative of a guy who had some time to study the game and get the feel of it during his time back in Grand Rapids and at the World Championships. He’s moved from the perimeter to the crease, and the opportunities are presenting themselves more consistently.

The minutes

Minutes are like getting noticed for the first time after your transformation. Continuing the Peter Parker analogy, Mary Jane Watson was the next door neighbor who barely noticed Peter. Now that he’s transformed himself, he’s finally getting his shot.

MBN barely played last year, and when he did, the linemates weren’t special. He was at 12.5 minutes per game playing mostly with J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp. To be honest, I’m surprised he even had an assist last year.

This year is different. He’s earned the ice time, and he’s earned better linemates. He’s spending about 15.5 minutes on the ice and almost exclusively with Emmitt Finnie and Alex DeBrincat. He did so well with them that on Saturday in Calgary he was promoted to a struggling first line with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and played 13 and a half of his 5v5 minutes with each of them, to try to get them going a bit.

His production has come exclusively at 5v5. All of his points are at even strength this year where 13.7 of his 15.5 minutes are spent. But it’s not just the amount of time he’s playing, it’s when. When you look at the last five minutes of regulation in one-goal games, he was on the ice for 15% of that time last year. This year it’s 25%, about what a second-line winger should get. He’s not being hidden at the end of games like some other rookies (cough…Gavin McKenna…cough).

Todd McLellan has noticed him and is giving him more shots. MBN has never been sheltered in terms of zone starts. The breakdown is about the same both years, 51% offensive-zone starts then and 53% now, against the opponent’s top line a little more often. But getting promoted in the lineup has led to tougher matchups, and it has not slowed him down at all.

His minutes have continued to go up, compared to last year where the last game he had before being sent back down to Grand Rapids was just 6:37 against the St. Louis Blues (before they got hot). I don’t anticipate him getting sent back down to Grand Rapids again.

The tiebreaker

This is when the person goes from glow-up to making the most of their newfound opportunities. Peter Parker still had to become Spider-Man.

Last year, half of the expected goals Detroit created with Michael Brandsegg-Nygard on the ice came while the Red Wings were trailing, and nearly all of his edge over the other team did. This year the value is spread across every score state, and he’s above 60% in all three.

This may be hard to totally conceptualize, so I’ll break it down further. xG for percentage looks at which team was more dangerous with the puck when a player is on the ice. 50% means it’s an even split between your team and the opposition. I mentioned earlier that last year MBN led all Red Wings in xGF percentage. In actuality he was about even when the game was tied (52%), a liability when they were leading (43%), and picked up the scraps when the Red Wings were already out of the game and the other teams were just trying to protect the lead (86%).

His ridiculous 86% xGF while trailing led to exactly one point, and it came at 17:20 of the third period on Long Island with Detroit down 7-1. It had nothing to do with getting the Red Wings back into a game. This year, he’s at 65% when tied, a frontrunning 71% when leading and still maintaining a 60% xGF when trailing. He is proving to be a line driver in all game situations.

It also shows up in when he plays. Last year, 41% of his 5v5 time came with Detroit leading, 33% tied and 26% trailing, and his numbers only looked good in the smallest of the three. This year the Wings have trailed a lot more, and he’s been out there for it: 41% of his 5v5 time has come from behind, 38% tied, 21% ahead, and he’s above 60% in every one of them. He’s not picking up scraps when the score dictates the game. He’s driving it no matter what the score is.

What all these changes have led to

If the underlying metrics represent the body transformation, getting noticed, and becoming the hero, the next question becomes, “What is Spider-Man actually doing?”

Let’s start with the puck going in the net. Last year, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard was on the ice for 59 shots for and 29 against. That led to 1 goal for and 6 against. At a league-average 8% shooting, one goal or fewer on 59 shots happens about 4 times in 100, and six or more against on 29 happens about 3 times in 100. That’s a bit of bad luck from a puck-bouncing standpoint, and a bit of “I’m on Andrew Copp’s line” bad luck.

This year, he’s been on the ice for 76 shots for and 45 against. That led to 10 goals for and 1 against, a 13% shooting line in front of a .978 goalie. That’s a bit of good puck luck and “I’m on Alex DeBrincat’s line” good luck.

His line has also taken care of the puck better. He’s been able to move the puck more dependably than last season, where his 5 defensive zone giveaways were the worst in the league (99th percentile) by any forward with 150 5v5 minutes. This year, he’s had only one of those giveaways, which puts him in the top quarter of forwards in the league.

Lastly, and most importantly, it’s led to 5v5 success. The Red Wings were horrendous last season at even-strength offense, 30th of 32 teams in 5v5 goals with 142. This season’s nothing to write home about either (24th so far), but it’s at least improving with MBN on the ice. He’s not somebody who’s benefitted from powerplay opportunities. All eight of his points have come at even strength, which is something this team desperately needed. It’s also tied for the most even-strength points among rookies this season, with James Hagens.

Why MBN turned into Spider-Man and not the Green Goblin

Uncle Ben once said, “With great power comes great responsibility.” When he said that, I’m pretty sure it was still his scrawny nephew Peter in the passenger seat and not Spider-Man. When Spider-Man was saving the tram car and Mary Jane Watson both from falling off the bridge, I’m still pretty sure it was Peter Parker in the passenger seat. Peter’s essence didn’t go away when he became Spider-Man. It became the guiding light for all those newfound abilities. Unlike Norman Osborn, who used all that power to become the villain Green Goblin.

All this to say, 2025-26 Michael Brandsegg-Nygard is still there. He’s still the average top-speed skater (21.6 mph, 47th percentile). He’s still got the top-third shot, 84 mph at its hardest. He still has the same level of desire to shoot the puck. He continues to be the loveable bully, hitting people 15 times for every 60 minutes played, and he keeps putting his body in harm’s way, blocking an identical 6 shots in each 10-game sample.

He just became more of himself in the time he went back down to Grand Rapids. The first couple games down in the AHL seemed to be a carryover of the negative momentum of the last handful of games in the NHL. But after a brief stint of underwhelming play, he went on to get 20 goals, 24 assists and put up a plus-17 rating.

He finished so strong that Griffins head coach Dan Watson said he was “our best player in the playoffs.” He took that energy to the Worlds for Norway where he put up 3 goals and 3 assists in 5 games as Norway beat Canada in overtime for its first medal ever.

This year Todd McLellan noticed, saying, “He’s one year stronger, both physically and mentally…I flat-out expect him to play on our team.” Eleven games later, it’s obvious Todd McLellan was right.

It’s interesting the way parallels happen. In his first 10 games last year, he was on the ice for only 1 of the 19 5v5 goals Detroit scored in that timeframe. This year, Detroit has also scored 19 5v5 goals in his first 10 games of the season. He’s been on the ice for 10 of them.

The glow-up is real. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard is here to stay.