A Tale of Two Seasons for the 2026-27 Red Wings

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…Who are we kidding? This year it’s likely just going to be the worst of times. Opening night is tonight against a sub-par Rangers team. Whatever happens, it won’t tell long-suffering fans much about the next six months.

A quick refresher, in case you blocked out the summer. On June 4, Dylan Larkin asked for a trade. On July 16, Steve Yzerman moved upstairs to senior advisor. Then the GM search came up empty, and it took Chris Ilitch two months to name Shawn Horcoff interim GM. Patrick Kane went back to Chicago. And Simon Edvinsson, a restricted free agent, still doesn’t have a contract on opening night. At every fork in the road, we chose the wrong path, or at least the wrong time. Whatever you think of Steve Yzerman, whatever you think of Dylan Larkin, to bridge or not to bridge with Simon Edvinsson, the front office chose wrong or did not choose at all.

But at the end of the day, 20 skaters are dressing up tonight and going to give it everything they have. And it’s not just a scrap heap of a roster. Moritz Seider is a legitimate top-5 defenseman in the league. He graded out as the best defenseman in the league last year in several models, including W-Value, this site’s rating, which weights expected goals above replacement 60% and actual goals above replacement 40%. Alex DeBrincat scored over 40 goals. Lucas Raymond looks like a season or two away from 90-plus points. John Gibson spent a long stretch of last season playing like a top-3 goalie and finished 12th of 61 in Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement.

When you look closely, you see the most capable goalie tandem the Red Wings have had in quite some time, and a better D corps (assuming Edvinsson gets signed soon and ramps up quickly) than the Red Wings have had in a longer time. But this forward group with Larkin is below average, and without him it’s hard to see how they can generate enough offense to do anything resembling a good hockey team. No matter how badly they want to prove people wrong, I think this team misses the playoffs for an 11th straight season.

Simulating the 2026-27 Detroit Red Wings Season

To keep my own pessimism out of it, I simulated the season 1,000 times: 500 with Dylan Larkin and 500 without him. This simulation model utilizes advanced projections from Evolving Hockey as well as a system for incorporating over and under-slotting of players based on the expected strength of competition they are likely to face. This is especially helpful when considering the fact that Andrew Copp may very well be the 1C for this team. It will also try to paint an accurate picture of how much harder offense will be to come by for the top Red Wings line when there’s such a drop-off in quality for lines two through four. Teams will be able to pick their matchups against the top line and do whatever they want against the rest of the team.

For each version of the Red Wings season - with Larkin and without him - I will choose one simulation where the actual point total for that season matches the average point total across the 500 simulations. We will then explore what happened in those two seasons, how the team did, how the players did, whether or not any of the Red Wings received any awards consideration, and who broke out versus who underachieved. At the very end, I will give my personal prediction for the season. Start with the big picture. Across the 500 seasons with Larkin, Detroit averaged 84.5 points and made the playoffs 15.8% of the time, with 80% of seasons landing between 70 and 99 points. Without him, it was 81.3 points and 11.6%. Matched season for season, the Larkin version finished about three points better.

Detroit Red Wings come up short while Dylan Larkin stays for the season

The vibes in Hockeytown were off all season. Interim GM Shawn Horcoff was unable to move Dylan Larkin, and the locker room had to deal with the drama for an entire year. By the time April came around, it was hard to find any positive energy among the players. They finished with 84 points. That’s 8th in the Atlantic and 15th in the East.

Ironically, Larkin had one of his healthiest seasons in recent memory playing 80 games and finished above the 30-goal threshold for a 6th season in a row. DeBrincat followed up his stellar 2025-26 campaign with another season above 80 points (83), but missed cracking the 40-goal mark by one. Raymond finished above a point per game with 79 in 76 games, and he even set a career high in goals with 33. Mo Seider set another career high with 65 points, third on the team and one more than Larkin. The iron man streak didn’t survive, though. He missed two games.

The two veterans they brought in went in opposite directions. Viktor Arvidsson, the free agent, scored 27 goals and finished with 62 points. Keegan Kolesar, the guy they traded for, played all 84 games and scored four times. Four. His -31 was the worst of any Wings forward.

For the youth movement, Emmitt Finnie continued his ascent into a top-6 role for the team, scoring 19 goals and adding 19 helpers. Marco Kasper had a slight bounce-back scoring 18 goals and registering 30 points. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard lit the lamp 12 times but did not play as responsible a two-way game as Todd McLellan hoped for with a -29 rating. Axel Sandin-Pellikka severely disappointed, scoring an inexcusable 1 goal in 60 games with a -28 rating. Nate Danielson scored six goals and somehow didn’t record a single assist. But the one who may have been the biggest letdown was Anton Johansson, who didn’t register a point in the 8 games he played on the team before being sent back down to Grand Rapids.

John Gibson and Daniil Tarasov were as average as a tandem gets. Gibson posted an .898 save percentage and a 2.83 GAA, Tarasov an .897 and a 2.64. Michal Postava was the bright spot. In six games after his call-up, he posted a .925 save percentage and a 2.50 GAA. Sadly, the team waited a bit too long to bring him up despite being out of playoff contention for a significant portion of the season.

By W-Value, Lucas Raymond wasn’t just the best Red Wing. He was the 5th best player in the NHL at 95.7 out of 100, trailing only Nathan MacKinnon (98.4), Adam Fox (98.0), Connor McDavid (97.4), and Jason Robertson (96.3). Seider (93.4) was the second best Red Wing and the 4th best defenseman, again trailing Fox, Rasmus Dahlin (94.9), and Lane Hutson (93.6). Even after moving to the third pair, Ben Chiarot had the worst season on the team by a mile. His W-Value was 6.2, 664th in the league and 17 points behind the next-worst regular, Justin Faulk (23.4), proving that it may be time to move on from him and hand the reins to Anton Johansson full-time going into the next season.

Around the league, the Colorado Avalanche won the Presidents’ Trophy with 131 points on the season, but Mikko Rantanen again got the best of them, this time in the conference finals. The New York Rangers had a truly surprising bounce-back season, getting first place in the Metropolitan and making it all the way to the Finals where they eventually lost to the Dallas Stars. And in the end, Jason Robertson finally proved once and for all that he should be part of the Stars’ long-term plans, bringing home the Conn Smythe with 17 goals and 12 assists in 28 playoff games.

The W-Value leader also won the Hart. Nathan MacKinnon had a season to remember, winning the Ted Lindsay, Art Ross and Selke trophies in addition to the Hart. Jake Guentzel’s meager 43 goals was somehow enough to get the Rocket Richard, and Adam Fox won the Norris. Jakub Dobes of the Montreal Canadiens won the Vezina with a .929 SV% and a 1.96 GAA. And to round off the player awards, Viggo Björck won the Calder with 24 goals and 32 assists, narrowly edging out Porter Martone, but safely ahead of Gavin McKenna.

For the Red Wings players who received votes, Lucas Raymond (7th) and Alex DeBrincat (9th) both finished in the top 10 of the Ted Lindsay. DeBrincat also finished 4th in the Rocket Richard. Seider moved up one slot in Norris voting, finishing 4th this year. And finally, Raymond also came in 10th for the Selke and 7th for the Lady Byng.

Raymond and Seider kept climbing, and Raymond finally gave Wings fans the season they’ve been waiting for. We’re still no closer to an answer at center, and that’s true even if Larkin stays for the rest of his contract.

Without Larkin, at least we were still better than Toronto

So much for the Maple Leafs getting McKenna and then immediately bouncing back. Only Nashville and Calgary finished with worse point totals than the 74 that Auston Matthews and company mustered up. The Red Wings still finished 7th in the Atlantic, 15th in the East, and 28th in the league. The defense is the only reason it wasn’t worse.

There’s no way around it, the void Larkin left on the top line was more like a black hole. Sure, Andrew Copp put up 43 points centering DeBrincat and Raymond, but teams matched up so easily against the top-heavy first unit that DeBrincat could only get 59 points and Raymond 53 points. The only player who seemed to hold his own off the first line was newcomer Viktor Arvidsson who came in second on the team with 55 points.

The team could do nothing in the O-zone, tying for last with Nashville in goals with 221, and putting tremendous pressure on the defense due to such a lopsided time of possession. The defense did its job. Detroit allowed the 9th-fewest expected goals in the league but finished 15th in actual goals allowed, which means the goaltending gave some back. This all despite having one of the worst SF:SA (shots for vs. shots allowed) ratios in the league.

There were a few bright spots, if you squinted. The biggest has to be Nate Danielson. He finished with 12 goals and 14 assists, easily the best of the young players fighting for roster spots this year. Carter Mazur had a respectable 10 goals, and Brandsegg-Nygard finished with 8 goals and 8 assists. Marco Kasper and Emmitt Finnie were the 4th and 5th best Red Wings by value, but that’s a very low bar. Leaguewide, their seasons would be considered slightly above average.

The truly disappointing seasons belong to Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Anton Johansson, and William Wallinder. ASP got hurt after 21 games with a season-ending injury, greatly stunting his progression. Anton Johansson played so poorly in his first 2 games that he got sent down to Grand Rapids for the remainder of the season. Wallinder was waived after just 2 games as well. He cleared and spent the rest of the season in Grand Rapids with Johansson.

The team also waited too long to call up Michal Postava. Hindsight being 20/20, John Gibson should have been traded at the deadline. Instead, he was the worst of the three goalies with a .898 SV%, 2.77 GAA, and a -3.7 goals saved above expected. Daniil Tarasov proved to be a nice offseason addition finishing with a .908 SV% and a 2.45 GAA. As hinted at earlier, Postava was the one who impressed. It was a small sample size, but in 4 games, he went 4-0-0 with a .931 SV%, 1.68 GAA and a 3.5 goals saved above expected.

Leaguewide, the Dallas Stars won the Presidents’ Trophy, but they got bounced early in the playoffs. This would be the year Tampa Bay returned to glory, beating Quinn Hughes and the Minnesota Wild for the Stanley Cup. Brandon Hagel was the main reason why, finishing the playoffs with 18 goals and grabbing the Conn Smythe.

Leon Draisaitl had quite the year, racking up tons of individual accolades. He finished with both the Hart and the Ted Lindsay, and he led the league in goals resulting in a Rocket Richard. The only player in his stratosphere was Nathan MacKinnon who was still able to pry away the Art Ross by a single point. Quinn Hughes started his work early, edging out Lane Hutson for the Norris trophy before his deep playoff run began. Connor Hellebuyck’s Vezina-winning season got Winnipeg back to the playoffs, despite a season-long standoff when the Jets did not honor his trade request. And finally Porter Martone was the unanimous winner of the Calder, finishing with 37 goals and 75 points, well above Anton Frondell’s 58 points.

It may come as no surprise, but not a single Red Wing got votes in any award category. It was a dark year and a horrible first step in the post-Dylan Larkin era. If there is one saving grace, it is that the Red Wings did not drop in the draft and held onto their 5th pick. You know you are in the Dead Wings 2.0 era when you are happy just to go chalk with the draft lottery.

Wes & Woodward Prediction

I’ve looked hard for hope this season and I can’t find it. My biggest wish for this year is that it doesn’t burn bridges with Seider and Raymond. When that’s the best-case scenario, you know where I stand.

First, some positives. I think that the year will give much needed extended looks at the young players in the Red Wings system. This is pivotal for players like Nate Danielson, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Carter Mazur, Anton Johansson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka who will start the year on the NHL roster. It’s also pivotal for players like Marco Kasper (who needs to turn things around after a sophomore slump) and Emmitt Finnie (who hopefully can build off a strong rookie campaign while avoiding a sophomore slump). But I want to also see some runway for non-roster players like Michal Postava and Carter Bear. This youth movement is likely going to be what it takes to move off of the “jerseys” who have been mainstays of the Red Wings roster over the last few years.

However, with a youth movement comes rookie mistakes. But that’s all palatable if progress is being made and an organization is turning a new leaf. A new leaf also needs to be turned in how the front office handles contract negotiations. Simon Edvinsson should not be nickeled and dimed. A little generosity can go a long way when it comes to how players feel within a locker room and how the team is perceived by other players outside of the locker room. If, by some miracle, the front office can salvage this negotiation process with Edvinsson and get an extension done with DeBrincat in addition to the positives that come from a youth movement, then I feel positive about the trajectory of the team moving forward regardless of how this year shakes out.

I think the model was too generous to both versions of this team. Larkin is gone before December. Justin Faulk gets moved by the deadline. And I wouldn’t be shocked if they move John Gibson’s expiring contract too, which would hand the net to a Tarasov-Postava tandem for a big chunk of the season.

All of that adds up to 75 points. That’s pessimistic, but the model saw it plenty. About 31% of the no-Larkin seasons ended at 75 points or worse (22% of the with-Larkin ones). Here’s where that lands:

• 8th place in the Atlantic
• 15th place in the East
• 29th place in the league

I am going to make an even bolder prediction when I say that the Red Wings will get some draft luck and pick 2nd in the upcoming draft. They’ll miss out on Landon DuPont, and a projected 2030 arrival time for Nazar Privalov will scare them off. And because this front office can’t resist drafting Swedes, they’ll trade down a couple of spots and take Milan Sundström.

Two simulated seasons, two versions of the worst of times. I’ll see all of you again for next year’s projection, when we find out just how wrong I was every step of the way, not so unlike this Red Wings organization.